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Jeju United FC vs Pohang Steelers — K League 1 2025

Jeju United FC
Jeju United FC
Preview
10:30
Pohang Steelers
Pohang Steelers
7/18/2026K League 1K League 1 · Round 18Jeju World Cup Stadium
Big match
38%
Pohang Steelers
model favours
34%28%38%

Jeju United FC score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Jeju United FC34%
×Draw28%
Pohang Steelers38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeju United FC
1.13
Pohang Steelers
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 28 away

creates per match

Jeju United FC
1.07
Pohang Steelers
1.21

allows per match

Jeju United FC
1.21
Pohang Steelers
1.18

finishing

Jeju United FC+0.00on par
Pohang Steelers+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeju United FC ↓

Pohang Steelers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Jeju United FC or draw
62%
Jeju United FC or Pohang Steelers
72%
Draw or Pohang Steelers
66%

Winning margin

Jeju United FC wins by 2+
14%
Pohang Steelers wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Jeju United FC 1+ goals
68%
Jeju United FC 2+ goals
31%
Jeju United FC 3+ goals
11%
Pohang Steelers 1+ goals
70%
Pohang Steelers 2+ goals
34%
Pohang Steelers 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Jeju United FC (draw refunded)
47%
Pohang Steelers (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeju United FC at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

Pohang Steelers away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.18 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeju United FC attack 1.07 + Pohang Steelers defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.13

Pohang Steelers attack 1.21 + Jeju United FC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Jeju United FC scores more
34%
level
28%
Pohang Steelers scores more
38%

Pohang Steelers at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Pohang Steelers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 80% of Pohang Steelers’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in only 20% of Pohang Steelers’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
FC
DDLLW
Steelers
WWLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jeju United FC face Pohang Steelers (K League 1)

K League 1 returns with Jeju United FC hosting Pohang Steelers. Match starts July 18, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Jeju United FC host Pohang Steelers at Jeju World Cup Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.