Jeju United FC 0–2 Gimcheon Sangmu FC

Jeju United FC

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

4/13/2024

K League 1 · Round 7Jeju World Cup Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Jeju United FC37%

×Draw27%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jeju United FCExpected goals in this matchGimcheon Sangmu FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.26

Jeju United FC

1.27

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 140 home / 117 away

1.16

creates per match

1.23

1.29

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Jeju United FC

1.16

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

1.23

allows per match

Jeju United FC

1.29

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jeju United FC+0.00on par

Gimcheon Sangmu FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeju United FC ↓

Gimcheon Sangmu FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Jeju United FC or draw

64%

Jeju United FC or Gimcheon Sangmu FC

73%

Draw or Gimcheon Sangmu FC

63%

Winning margin

Jeju United FC wins by 2+

16%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Jeju United FC 1+ goals

72%

Jeju United FC 2+ goals

36%

Jeju United FC 3+ goals

14%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1+ goals

72%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2+ goals

36%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Jeju United FC (draw refunded)

50%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeju United FC at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.29 · 140 matches

Gimcheon Sangmu FC away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.38 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeju United FC attack 1.16 + Gimcheon Sangmu FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.23 + Jeju United FC defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Jeju United FC scores more

37%

level

27%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC scores more

36%

Jeju United FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Jeju United FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff