Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC — K League 1 2026
Gangwon FC score first in only 13% of matches
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 140+ matches
Jeju United FC39%
Gangwon FC34%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 140 home / 158 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under56
- Over44
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Jeju United FC ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Jeju United FC at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.29 · 140 matches
Gangwon FC away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.38 · 158 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Jeju United FC attack 1.16 + Gangwon FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27
Gangwon FC attack 1.04 + Jeju United FC defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.17
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
Jeju United FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "Jeju United FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Jeju United FC score first in only 17% of matches
- Gangwon FC outscore their xG (1.3 vs 0.6 expected)
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Style Matchup
Similar stylesHead-to-head
10 previous meetings
Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Jeju United FC host Gangwon FC on Tuesday, 21 July 2026 at 10:30. The match is part of the K League 1 2026/2027 season.
Jeju United FC face Gangwon FC (K League 1)
K League 1 returns with Jeju United FC hosting Gangwon FC. Match starts July 21, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Jeju United FC host Gangwon FC at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.