JEF United Chiba vs Tokyo Verdy

JEF United Chiba

Preview

11:00

Tokyo Verdy

3/10/2027

J1 League · Round 25Fukuda Denshi Arena

Big match

42%

Tokyo Verdy

model favours

32%26%42%

JEF United Chiba score first in only 7% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

51%

under 2.5 goals

53%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

JEF United Chiba32%

×Draw26%

Tokyo Verdy42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JEF United ChibaExpected goals in this matchTokyo Verdy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.43

JEF United Chiba

1.21

Tokyo Verdy

1.43

Tokyo Verdy creates 18% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 46 away

1.13

creates per match

0.85

2.00

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

JEF United Chiba

1.13

Tokyo Verdy

0.85

allows per match

JEF United Chiba

2.00

Tokyo Verdy

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

JEF United Chiba+0.00on par

Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JEF United Chiba ↓

Tokyo Verdy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

JEF United Chiba or draw

58%

JEF United Chiba or Tokyo Verdy

74%

Draw or Tokyo Verdy

68%

Winning margin

JEF United Chiba wins by 2+

13%

Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

JEF United Chiba 1+ goals

70%

JEF United Chiba 2+ goals

34%

JEF United Chiba 3+ goals

12%

Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals

76%

Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals

42%

Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

JEF United Chiba (draw refunded)

43%

Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JEF United Chiba at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

Tokyo Verdy away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.30 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JEF United Chiba attack 1.13 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Tokyo Verdy attack 0.85 + JEF United Chiba defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

JEF United Chiba scores more

32%

level

26%

Tokyo Verdy scores more

42%

Tokyo Verdy at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tokyo Verdy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Tokyo Verdy score first in only 10% of matches
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

JEF United Chiba

Balanced

Tokyo Verdy

Defensively solid

47%Possession47%

79%Pass accuracy76%

10.1Shots10.2

1.13xGBiggest gap0.88

JEF United ChibaTokyo Verdy

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4

JEF United Chiba

2

Draws

4

Tokyo Verdy

Avg goals: 3BTTS: 70%

0–13–21–22–31–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Chiba

LDLLL

Verdy

LDLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff