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JEF United Chiba vs Shimizu S-pulse — J1 League 2025

JEF United Chiba
JEF United Chiba
Preview
10:00
Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
5/9/2027J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 34Fukuda Denshi Arena
42%
Shimizu S-pulse
model favours
33%25%42%

JEF United Chiba score first in only 7% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

JEF United Chiba33%
×Draw25%
Shimizu S-pulse42%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JEF United Chiba
1.31
Shimizu S-pulse
1.52

Shimizu S-pulse creates 16% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 36 away

creates per match

JEF United Chiba
1.13
Shimizu S-pulse
1.03

allows per match

JEF United Chiba
2.00
Shimizu S-pulse
1.50

finishing

JEF United Chiba+0.00on par
Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JEF United Chiba ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

JEF United Chiba or draw
58%
JEF United Chiba or Shimizu S-pulse
75%
Draw or Shimizu S-pulse
67%

Winning margin

JEF United Chiba wins by 2+
14%
Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

JEF United Chiba 1+ goals
73%
JEF United Chiba 2+ goals
38%
JEF United Chiba 3+ goals
14%
Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
78%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
45%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

JEF United Chiba (draw refunded)
44%
Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JEF United Chiba at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.50 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JEF United Chiba attack 1.13 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.03 + JEF United Chiba defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

JEF United Chiba scores more
33%
level
25%
Shimizu S-pulse scores more
42%

Shimizu S-pulse at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Shimizu S-pulse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Shimizu S-pulse score first in only 17% of matches
  • JEF United Chiba and Shimizu S-pulse have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
JEF United Chiba
Balanced
Shimizu S-pulse
Balanced
47%Possession50%
79%Pass accuracy79%
10.1ShotsBiggest gap11.9
1.13xG1.17
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
JEF United ChibaShimizu S-pulse

Head-to-head

First-ever meeting

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Chiba
LDLLL
S-pulse
WLDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

JEF United Chiba face Shimizu S-pulse (J1 League)

J1 League returns with JEF United Chiba hosting Shimizu S-pulse. Match starts May 9, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

JEF United Chiba host Shimizu S-pulse at Fukuda Denshi Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.