JEF United Chiba 1–2 Machida Zelvia: Result & Stats

JEF United Chiba

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Machida Zelvia

6/29/2019

J2 League · Round 20Fukuda Denshi Arena (Chiba)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

JEF United Chiba37%

×Draw27%

Machida Zelvia36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JEF United ChibaExpected goals in this matchMachida Zelvia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.28

JEF United Chiba

1.30

Machida Zelvia

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 167 home / 127 away

1.48

creates per match

1.31

1.25

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

JEF United Chiba

1.48

Machida Zelvia

1.31

allows per match

JEF United Chiba

1.25

Machida Zelvia

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

JEF United Chiba+0.00on par

Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JEF United Chiba ↓

Machida Zelvia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

JEF United Chiba or draw

64%

JEF United Chiba or Machida Zelvia

73%

Draw or Machida Zelvia

63%

Winning margin

JEF United Chiba wins by 2+

17%

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

JEF United Chiba 1+ goals

73%

JEF United Chiba 2+ goals

37%

JEF United Chiba 3+ goals

14%

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals

72%

Machida Zelvia 2+ goals

37%

Machida Zelvia 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

JEF United Chiba (draw refunded)

51%

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JEF United Chiba at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.25 · 167 matches

Machida Zelvia away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.12 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JEF United Chiba attack 1.48 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.30

Machida Zelvia attack 1.31 + JEF United Chiba defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

JEF United Chiba scores more

37%

level

27%

Machida Zelvia scores more

36%

JEF United Chiba at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "JEF United Chiba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff