JEF United Chiba vs Kyoto Sanga — J1 League 2018
JEF United Chiba score first in only 7% of matches
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 8+ matches
JEF United Chiba30%Kyoto Sanga45%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Kyoto Sanga creates 28% more chances
Season form · 8 home / 80 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over53
- Under47
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
JEF United Chiba ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
JEF United Chiba at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches
Kyoto Sanga away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.32 · 80 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
JEF United Chiba attack 1.13 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23
Kyoto Sanga attack 1.16 + JEF United Chiba defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.58
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Kyoto Sanga at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Kyoto Sanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Kyoto Sanga score first in only 27% of matches
- 73% of Kyoto Sanga’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Style Matchup
Similar stylesHead-to-head
10 previous meetings
Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
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V-varen NagasakiIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
JEF United Chiba host Kyoto Sanga on Saturday, 10 April 2027 at 10:00. The match is part of the J1 League 2018/2019 season.
JEF United Chiba face Kyoto Sanga (J1 League)
J1 League returns with JEF United Chiba hosting Kyoto Sanga. Match starts April 10, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
JEF United Chiba host Kyoto Sanga at Fukuda Denshi Arena.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.