Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Jedinstvo vs Petrovac — First League 2019

Jedinstvo
Jedinstvo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Petrovac
Petrovac
11/28/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 17Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Jedinstvo38%
×Draw28%
Petrovac34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo
1.22
Petrovac
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 125 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo
1.07
Petrovac
1.11

allows per match

Jedinstvo
1.14
Petrovac
1.37

finishing

Jedinstvo+0.00on par
Petrovac+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo ↓

Petrovac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Jedinstvo or draw
66%
Jedinstvo or Petrovac
72%
Draw or Petrovac
62%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo wins by 2+
16%
Petrovac wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Jedinstvo 1+ goals
70%
Jedinstvo 2+ goals
34%
Jedinstvo 3+ goals
12%
Petrovac 1+ goals
68%
Petrovac 2+ goals
31%
Petrovac 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo (draw refunded)
53%
Petrovac (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.14 · 73 matches

Petrovac away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.37 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo attack 1.07 + Petrovac defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.22

Petrovac attack 1.11 + Jedinstvo defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Jedinstvo scores more
38%
level
28%
Petrovac scores more
34%

Jedinstvo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Jedinstvo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Jedinstvo 1–1 Petrovac

Jedinstvo and Petrovac drew 1-1 in First League on November 28, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Bijelo Polje.