Jedinstvo Paraćin 2–2 SFS Borac: Result & Stats

Jedinstvo Paraćin

FT

2 – 2

SFS Borac

11/12/2022

Srpska Liga - East · East - 14Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Jedinstvo Paraćin49%

×Draw25%

SFS Borac27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jedinstvo ParaćinExpected goals in this matchSFS Borac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.14

Jedinstvo Paraćin

1.63

SFS Borac

1.14

Jedinstvo Paraćin creates 43% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 72 away

1.67

creates per match

1.10

1.17

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Jedinstvo Paraćin

1.67

SFS Borac

1.10

allows per match

Jedinstvo Paraćin

1.17

SFS Borac

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jedinstvo Paraćin+0.00on par

SFS Borac+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Paraćin ↓

SFS Borac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Paraćin or draw

73%

Jedinstvo Paraćin or SFS Borac

75%

Draw or SFS Borac

51%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Paraćin wins by 2+

26%

SFS Borac wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Paraćin 1+ goals

80%

Jedinstvo Paraćin 2+ goals

48%

Jedinstvo Paraćin 3+ goals

22%

SFS Borac 1+ goals

68%

SFS Borac 2+ goals

32%

SFS Borac 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Paraćin (draw refunded)

65%

SFS Borac (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Paraćin at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 95 matches

SFS Borac away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.58 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Paraćin attack 1.67 + SFS Borac defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.63

SFS Borac attack 1.10 + Jedinstvo Paraćin defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Jedinstvo Paraćin scores more

49%

level

25%

SFS Borac scores more

27%

Jedinstvo Paraćin at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Jedinstvo Paraćin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff