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Jeddah Club vs Najran — Division 1 2018

Jeddah Club
Jeddah Club
FT
1 – 2
Najran
Najran
9/18/2019Division 1Division 1 · Round 5King Abdullah Sports City Reserve Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Jeddah Club35%
×Draw28%
Najran37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeddah Club
1.14
Najran
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 128 home / 77 away

creates per match

Jeddah Club
1.05
Najran
1.10

allows per match

Jeddah Club
1.23
Najran
1.23

finishing

Jeddah Club+0.00on par
Najran+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeddah Club ↓

Najran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Jeddah Club or draw
63%
Jeddah Club or Najran
72%
Draw or Najran
65%

Winning margin

Jeddah Club wins by 2+
14%
Najran wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Jeddah Club 1+ goals
68%
Jeddah Club 2+ goals
32%
Jeddah Club 3+ goals
11%
Najran 1+ goals
69%
Najran 2+ goals
33%
Najran 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Jeddah Club (draw refunded)
49%
Najran (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeddah Club at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.23 · 128 matches

Najran away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.23 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeddah Club attack 1.05 + Najran defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.14

Najran attack 1.10 + Jeddah Club defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Jeddah Club scores more
35%
level
28%
Najran scores more
37%

Najran at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Najran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jeddah Club vs Najran

Najran beat Jeddah Club 2-1 in Division 1 on September 18, 2019.

The match was played at King Abdullah Sports City Reserve Stadium in Jeddah.