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Jecheon Citizen vs Sejong SA — K4 League 2026

Jecheon Citizen
Jecheon Citizen
Preview
08:00
Sejong SA
Sejong SA
8/23/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 19
41%
Jecheon Citizen
model favours
41%26%34%
1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Jecheon Citizen41%
×Draw26%
Sejong SA34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jecheon Citizen
1.43
Sejong SA
1.28

Jecheon Citizen creates 12% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Jecheon Citizen
1.00
Sejong SA
1.14

allows per match

Jecheon Citizen
1.43
Sejong SA
1.86

finishing

Jecheon Citizen+0.00on par
Sejong SA+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jecheon Citizen ↓

Sejong SA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Jecheon Citizen or draw
66%
Jecheon Citizen or Sejong SA
74%
Draw or Sejong SA
59%

Winning margin

Jecheon Citizen wins by 2+
19%
Sejong SA wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Jecheon Citizen 1+ goals
76%
Jecheon Citizen 2+ goals
42%
Jecheon Citizen 3+ goals
17%
Sejong SA 1+ goals
72%
Sejong SA 2+ goals
37%
Sejong SA 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Jecheon Citizen (draw refunded)
55%
Sejong SA (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jecheon Citizen at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Sejong SA away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jecheon Citizen attack 1.00 + Sejong SA defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

Sejong SA attack 1.14 + Jecheon Citizen defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Jecheon Citizen scores more
41%
level
26%
Sejong SA scores more
34%

Jecheon Citizen at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Jecheon Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Citizen
LLDWL
SA
WDLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Jecheon Citizen host Sejong SA

August 23, 2026: Jecheon Citizen take on Sejong SA in K4 League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.