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Jecheon Citizen vs Namyangju — K4 League 2026

Jecheon Citizen
Jecheon Citizen
Preview
08:00
Namyangju
Namyangju
7/25/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 18
38%
Jecheon Citizen
model favours
38%26%36%
1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Jecheon Citizen38%
×Draw26%
Namyangju36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jecheon Citizen
1.33
Namyangju
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Jecheon Citizen
1.00
Namyangju
1.17

allows per match

Jecheon Citizen
1.43
Namyangju
1.67

finishing

Jecheon Citizen+0.00on par
Namyangju+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jecheon Citizen ↓

Namyangju →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Jecheon Citizen or draw
64%
Jecheon Citizen or Namyangju
74%
Draw or Namyangju
62%

Winning margin

Jecheon Citizen wins by 2+
17%
Namyangju wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Jecheon Citizen 1+ goals
74%
Jecheon Citizen 2+ goals
38%
Jecheon Citizen 3+ goals
15%
Namyangju 1+ goals
73%
Namyangju 2+ goals
37%
Namyangju 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Jecheon Citizen (draw refunded)
51%
Namyangju (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jecheon Citizen at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Namyangju away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jecheon Citizen attack 1.00 + Namyangju defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Namyangju attack 1.17 + Jecheon Citizen defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Jecheon Citizen scores more
38%
level
26%
Namyangju scores more
36%

Jecheon Citizen at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Jecheon Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Citizen
LLDWL
Namyangju
LWWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Jecheon Citizen host Namyangju

July 25, 2026: Jecheon Citizen take on Namyangju in K4 League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.