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JBK vs GBK — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

JBK
JBK
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
GBK
GBK
8/12/2020Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 9Länsikenttä tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

JBK49%
×Draw22%
GBK30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JBK
2.02
GBK
1.54

JBK creates 31% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 87 away

creates per match

JBK
1.95
GBK
1.62

allows per match

JBK
1.46
GBK
2.08

finishing

JBK+0.00on par
GBK+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JBK ↓

GBK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

JBK or draw
70%
JBK or GBK
78%
Draw or GBK
51%

Winning margin

JBK wins by 2+
28%
GBK wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

JBK 1+ goals
87%
JBK 2+ goals
60%
JBK 3+ goals
33%
GBK 1+ goals
79%
GBK 2+ goals
45%
GBK 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

JBK (draw refunded)
62%
GBK (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JBK at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.46 · 87 matches

GBK away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.08 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JBK attack 1.95 + GBK defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.02

GBK attack 1.62 + JBK defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

JBK scores more
49%
level
22%
GBK scores more
30%

JBK at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "JBK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko C: JBK 3–2 GBK

JBK beat GBK 3-2 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on August 12, 2020.

The match was played at Länsikenttä tekonurmi in Jacobstad.