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Jayxun vs BuxDu — Pro League A 2026

Jayxun
Jayxun
Preview
13:00
BuxDu
BuxDu
7/31/2026Pro League APro League A · Round 12
60%
Jayxun
model favours
60%23%17%

Jayxun and BuxDu have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Jayxun60%
×Draw23%
BuxDu17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jayxun
1.73
BuxDu
0.78

Jayxun creates 122% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 5 away

creates per match

Jayxun
1.06
BuxDu
0.00

allows per match

Jayxun
1.56
BuxDu
2.40

finishing

Jayxun+0.00on par
BuxDu+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jayxun ↓

BuxDu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Jayxun or draw
83%
Jayxun or BuxDu
77%
Draw or BuxDu
40%

Winning margin

Jayxun wins by 2+
34%
BuxDu wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Jayxun 1+ goals
82%
Jayxun 2+ goals
52%
Jayxun 3+ goals
25%
BuxDu 1+ goals
54%
BuxDu 2+ goals
18%
BuxDu 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Jayxun (draw refunded)
78%
BuxDu (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jayxun at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

BuxDu away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jayxun attack 1.06 + BuxDu defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.73

BuxDu attack 0.00 + Jayxun defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Jayxun scores more
60%
level
23%
BuxDu scores more
17%

Jayxun at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Jayxun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Jayxun
LDLWW
BuxDu
WWWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jayxun face BuxDu (Pro League A)

Pro League A returns with Jayxun hosting BuxDu. Match starts July 31, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.