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Jarun vs Dubrava Zagreb — First NL 2018

Jarun
Jarun
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dubrava Zagreb
Dubrava Zagreb
2/16/2024First NLFirst NL · Round 18Stadion Ivan Laljak-Ivić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Jarun43%
×Draw26%
Dubrava Zagreb31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jarun
1.44
Dubrava Zagreb
1.19

Jarun creates 21% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 106 away

creates per match

Jarun
1.51
Dubrava Zagreb
0.98

allows per match

Jarun
1.40
Dubrava Zagreb
1.36

finishing

Jarun+0.00on par
Dubrava Zagreb+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jarun ↓

Dubrava Zagreb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Jarun or draw
69%
Jarun or Dubrava Zagreb
74%
Draw or Dubrava Zagreb
57%

Winning margin

Jarun wins by 2+
21%
Dubrava Zagreb wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Jarun 1+ goals
76%
Jarun 2+ goals
42%
Jarun 3+ goals
18%
Dubrava Zagreb 1+ goals
70%
Dubrava Zagreb 2+ goals
33%
Dubrava Zagreb 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Jarun (draw refunded)
58%
Dubrava Zagreb (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jarun at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.40 · 80 matches

Dubrava Zagreb away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.36 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jarun attack 1.51 + Dubrava Zagreb defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.44

Dubrava Zagreb attack 0.98 + Jarun defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jarun scores more
43%
level
26%
Dubrava Zagreb scores more
31%

Jarun at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Jarun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jarun vs Dubrava Zagreb

Jarun beat Dubrava Zagreb 1-0 in First NL on February 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Ivan Laljak-Ivić in Zaprešić.