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Jaro 2 vs GBK — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

Jaro 2
Jaro 2
Preview
15:30
GBK
GBK
7/22/2026Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Group CProject Liv Arena
Big match
50%
Jaro 2
model favours
50%20%30%

GBK have won 5 in a row

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
78%
over 2.5 goals
75%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Jaro 250%
×Draw20%
GBK30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jaro 2
2.34
GBK
1.81

Jaro 2 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 87 away

creates per match

Jaro 2
2.60
GBK
1.62

allows per match

Jaro 2
2.00
GBK
2.08

finishing

Jaro 2+0.00on par
GBK+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaro 2 ↓

GBK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Jaro 2 or draw
70%
Jaro 2 or GBK
80%
Draw or GBK
50%

Winning margin

Jaro 2 wins by 2+
30%
GBK wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Jaro 2 1+ goals
90%
Jaro 2 2+ goals
67%
Jaro 2 3+ goals
41%
GBK 1+ goals
84%
GBK 2+ goals
54%
GBK 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Jaro 2 (draw refunded)
62%
GBK (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaro 2 at home — creates 2.60, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

GBK away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.08 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaro 2 attack 2.60 + GBK defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.34

GBK attack 1.62 + Jaro 2 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Jaro 2 scores more
50%
level
20%
GBK scores more
30%

Jaro 2 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Jaro 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 83% of GBK’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • GBK score first in only 33% of matches
  • Both teams score in 75% of GBK’s matches
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Jaro 2 2 vs GBK 1
  • 35% of GBK’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • 22% of GBK’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
2
LLLWL
GBK
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Jaro 2 host GBK

July 22, 2026: Jaro 2 take on GBK in Kakkonen - Lohko C. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Jaro 2 host GBK at Project Liv Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.