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Järfälla vs AFC Eskilstuna — Ettan - Norra 2019

Järfälla
Järfälla
Preview
14:00
AFC Eskilstuna
AFC Eskilstuna
9/26/2026Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 24
41%
AFC Eskilstuna
model favours
37%21%41%

Both teams score in 92% of Järfälla’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
73%
over 2.5 goals
72%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Järfälla37%
×Draw21%
AFC Eskilstuna41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Järfälla
1.85
AFC Eskilstuna
1.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 37 away

creates per match

Järfälla
1.33
AFC Eskilstuna
1.76

allows per match

Järfälla
2.17
AFC Eskilstuna
2.38

finishing

Järfälla+0.00on par
AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Järfälla ↓

AFC Eskilstuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Järfälla or draw
59%
Järfälla or AFC Eskilstuna
79%
Draw or AFC Eskilstuna
63%

Winning margin

Järfälla wins by 2+
19%
AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Järfälla 1+ goals
84%
Järfälla 2+ goals
55%
Järfälla 3+ goals
28%
AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals
86%
AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals
58%
AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Järfälla (draw refunded)
47%
AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Järfälla at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

AFC Eskilstuna away — creates 1.76, concedes 2.38 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Järfälla attack 1.33 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.85

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.76 + Järfälla defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Järfälla scores more
37%
level
21%
AFC Eskilstuna scores more
41%

AFC Eskilstuna at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "AFC Eskilstuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 75% of Järfälla’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Järfälla
WLDLL
Eskilstuna
WDWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Järfälla face AFC Eskilstuna (Ettan - Norra)

Ettan - Norra returns with Järfälla hosting AFC Eskilstuna. Match starts September 26, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.