Jarabacoa 0–3 Vega Real: Result & Stats

Jarabacoa

FT

0 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Vega Real

8/7/2022

Liga Mayor · Championship Round - 5Estadio Junior Mejía

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Jarabacoa38%

×Draw27%

Vega Real36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JarabacoaExpected goals in this matchVega Real

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.26

Jarabacoa

1.31

Vega Real

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 67 away

1.20

creates per match

0.99

1.53

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Jarabacoa

1.20

Vega Real

0.99

allows per match

Jarabacoa

1.53

Vega Real

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jarabacoa+0.00on par

Vega Real+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jarabacoa ↓

Vega Real →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Jarabacoa or draw

64%

Jarabacoa or Vega Real

73%

Draw or Vega Real

62%

Winning margin

Jarabacoa wins by 2+

17%

Vega Real wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Jarabacoa 1+ goals

73%

Jarabacoa 2+ goals

38%

Jarabacoa 3+ goals

14%

Vega Real 1+ goals

72%

Vega Real 2+ goals

36%

Vega Real 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Jarabacoa (draw refunded)

52%

Vega Real (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jarabacoa at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.53 · 45 matches

Vega Real away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.43 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jarabacoa attack 1.20 + Vega Real defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.31

Vega Real attack 0.99 + Jarabacoa defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Jarabacoa scores more

38%

level

27%

Vega Real scores more

36%

Jarabacoa at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Jarabacoa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff