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Jaraaf vs Génération Foot — Ligue 1 2019

Jaraaf
Jaraaf
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Génération Foot
Génération Foot
12/2/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 6Stade Iba-Mar-Diop

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Jaraaf36%
×Draw34%
Génération Foot29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jaraaf
0.89
Génération Foot
0.77

Jaraaf creates 16% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 88 away

creates per match

Jaraaf
0.95
Génération Foot
0.98

allows per match

Jaraaf
0.57
Génération Foot
0.83

finishing

Jaraaf+0.00on par
Génération Foot+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaraaf ↓

Génération Foot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–115%
0–26%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Jaraaf or draw
71%
Jaraaf or Génération Foot
66%
Draw or Génération Foot
64%

Winning margin

Jaraaf wins by 2+
13%
Génération Foot wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Jaraaf 1+ goals
59%
Jaraaf 2+ goals
22%
Jaraaf 3+ goals
6%
Génération Foot 1+ goals
54%
Génération Foot 2+ goals
18%
Génération Foot 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Jaraaf (draw refunded)
55%
Génération Foot (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaraaf at home — creates 0.95, concedes 0.57 · 88 matches

Génération Foot away — creates 0.98, concedes 0.83 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaraaf attack 0.95 + Génération Foot defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.89

Génération Foot attack 0.98 + Jaraaf defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Jaraaf scores more
36%
level
34%
Génération Foot scores more
29%

Jaraaf at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Jaraaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Jaraaf 3–0 Génération Foot

Jaraaf beat Génération Foot 3-0 in Ligue 1 on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Iba-Mar-Diop in Dakar.