JäPS 2–1 SJK Akatemia: Result & Stats | Ykkösliiga

JäPS

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

SJK Akatemia

M. Rautiola 89'

A. Ristola 16'

A. Atarah 9' (pen)

9/20/2024

Ykkösliiga · Round 24Järvenpää TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

JäPS44%

×Draw24%

SJK Akatemia32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JäPSExpected goals in this matchSJK Akatemia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.35

JäPS

1.62

SJK Akatemia

1.35

JäPS creates 20% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 35 away

1.41

creates per match

1.14

1.56

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

JäPS

1.41

SJK Akatemia

1.14

allows per match

JäPS

1.56

SJK Akatemia

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

JäPS+0.00on par

SJK Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JäPS ↓

SJK Akatemia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

JäPS or draw

68%

JäPS or SJK Akatemia

76%

Draw or SJK Akatemia

56%

Winning margin

JäPS wins by 2+

22%

SJK Akatemia wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

JäPS 1+ goals

80%

JäPS 2+ goals

48%

JäPS 3+ goals

22%

SJK Akatemia 1+ goals

74%

SJK Akatemia 2+ goals

39%

SJK Akatemia 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

JäPS (draw refunded)

58%

SJK Akatemia (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JäPS at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.56 · 34 matches

SJK Akatemia away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.83 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JäPS attack 1.41 + SJK Akatemia defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.62

SJK Akatemia attack 1.14 + JäPS defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

JäPS scores more

44%

level

24%

SJK Akatemia scores more

32%

JäPS at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "JäPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

A. AtarahPenalty

13'

N. Tahmbi

16'

A. Ristola

18'

L. Kyllonen

53'

E. Akansase

59'

J. Mabinda

60'

J. Nikkilä← L. Laine

67'

D. Camara← A. Ristola

70'

O. Hänninen← E. Akansase

70'

E. Hautamäki← L. Kyllönen

83'

M. Rautiola← V. Ahola

83'

Moses Turay← A. Lyyra

83'

R. Malik← A. Atarah

89'

M. Rautiola

90+4'

T. Palmasto

JäPS

SJK

34

Kaunismäk

16

Koivisto

21

▼

Kyllönen

58

▼

23

6

8

14

76

▼

Laine

19

⚽

▼

Atarah

33

▼

1

30

2

4

3

14

6

10

▼

Ahola

13

Hellemaa

9

⚽

▼

Ristola

11

Tukiainen

Manager: T. Kankkunen

67'▲D. Camara←▼A. Ristola

83'▲M. Rautiola←▼V. Ahola

JäPS substitutes

58Camara26Rautiola5Arminen22Järvinen31Tiainen77Kaijasilta62Hvidberg

Manager: T. Lehtinen

60'▲J. Nikkilä←▼L. Laine

70'▲O. Hänninen←▼E. Akansase

70'▲E. Hautamäki←▼L. Kyllönen

83'▲Moses Turay←▼A. Lyyra

83'▲R. Malik←▼A. Atarah

SJK Akatemia substitutes

72Nikkilä17Hänninen38Hautamäki7Turay5Malik15Hyytinen60Kivelä

Ykkösliiga: JäPS 2–1 SJK Akatemia

JäPS beat SJK Akatemia 2-1 in Ykkösliiga on September 20, 2024.

Goals: A. Atarah (9' pen), A. Ristola (16'), M. Rautiola (89').

The match was played at Järvenpää TN in Järvenpää.

JäPS vs SJK Akatemia — Ykkösliiga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ykkösliiga: JäPS 2–1 SJK Akatemia