Jamshedpur 1–3 East Bengal: Result & Stats

Jamshedpur

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

East Bengal

J. Emmanuel-Thomas 40' (pen)

Cleiton Silva 58', 26'

S. Vadakkepeedika 2'

11/27/2022

Indian Super League · Round 8JRD Tata Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Jamshedpur45%

×Draw25%

East Bengal30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JamshedpurExpected goals in this matchEast Bengal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.21

Jamshedpur

1.55

East Bengal

1.21

Jamshedpur creates 28% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 53 away

1.40

creates per match

1.11

1.30

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Jamshedpur

1.40

East Bengal

1.11

allows per match

Jamshedpur

1.30

East Bengal

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jamshedpur+0.00on par

East Bengal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jamshedpur ↓

East Bengal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Jamshedpur or draw

70%

Jamshedpur or East Bengal

75%

Draw or East Bengal

55%

Winning margin

Jamshedpur wins by 2+

23%

East Bengal wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Jamshedpur 1+ goals

79%

Jamshedpur 2+ goals

46%

Jamshedpur 3+ goals

20%

East Bengal 1+ goals

70%

East Bengal 2+ goals

34%

East Bengal 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Jamshedpur (draw refunded)

60%

East Bengal (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jamshedpur at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.30 · 73 matches

East Bengal away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.70 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jamshedpur attack 1.40 + East Bengal defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.55

East Bengal attack 1.11 + Jamshedpur defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Jamshedpur scores more

45%

level

25%

East Bengal scores more

30%

Jamshedpur at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Jamshedpur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

N. Singh

East Bengal · M

9.2

Match Events

2'

S. Vadakkepeedika↳ N. Singh

26'

Cleiton Silva↳ N. Singh

28'

Peter Hartley

29'

Chungnunga Lal

36'

V.P. Suhair

40'

J. Emmanuel-ThomasPenalty

45+1'

Laldinliana Renthlei

58'

Cleiton Silva↳ N. Singh

62'

R. Das← H. Sawyer

64'

A. Jadhav← S. Vadakkepeedika

70'

Jitendra Singh

77'

F. Choudhary← S. Sahil

79'

I. Pandita← L. Renthlei

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JamshedpurEast

Overview

45%Possession55%

20Total Shots17

5Corners6

8Fouls6

Shots

20Total Shots17

5On Target7

10Off Target3

5Blocked7

14Inside Box10

6Outside Box7

Passing

45%Possession55%

309Total Passes396

207Accurate Passes291

67%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls6

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides3