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Jahn Regensburg II vs Weiden — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Jahn Regensburg II
Jahn Regensburg II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Weiden
Weiden
8/13/2022Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 7Sportpark am Kaulbachweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Jahn Regensburg II52%
×Draw22%
Weiden26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jahn Regensburg II
2.01
Weiden
1.37

Jahn Regensburg II creates 47% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 51 away

creates per match

Jahn Regensburg II
2.22
Weiden
1.31

allows per match

Jahn Regensburg II
1.43
Weiden
1.80

finishing

Jahn Regensburg II+0.00on par
Weiden+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jahn Regensburg II ↓

Weiden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Jahn Regensburg II or draw
74%
Jahn Regensburg II or Weiden
78%
Draw or Weiden
48%

Winning margin

Jahn Regensburg II wins by 2+
30%
Weiden wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Jahn Regensburg II 1+ goals
87%
Jahn Regensburg II 2+ goals
59%
Jahn Regensburg II 3+ goals
32%
Weiden 1+ goals
75%
Weiden 2+ goals
40%
Weiden 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Jahn Regensburg II (draw refunded)
67%
Weiden (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jahn Regensburg II at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.43 · 68 matches

Weiden away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.80 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jahn Regensburg II attack 2.22 + Weiden defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.01

Weiden attack 1.31 + Jahn Regensburg II defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Jahn Regensburg II scores more
52%
level
22%
Weiden scores more
26%

Jahn Regensburg II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Jahn Regensburg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Jahn Regensburg II 2–2 Weiden

Jahn Regensburg II and Weiden drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on August 13, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark am Kaulbachweg in Regensburg.