Jahn Regensburg II vs Großbardorf

Jahn Regensburg II

Preview

14:00

Großbardorf

5/15/2027

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 33

54%

Jahn Regensburg II

model favours

54%21%25%

Großbardorf win just 11% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

2–1

likely score

69%

over 2.5 goals

67%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Jahn Regensburg II54%

×Draw21%

Großbardorf25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jahn Regensburg IIExpected goals in this matchGroßbardorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.42

Jahn Regensburg II

2.17

Großbardorf

1.42

Jahn Regensburg II creates 53% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

2.22

creates per match

1.41

1.43

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Jahn Regensburg II

2.22

Großbardorf

1.41

allows per match

Jahn Regensburg II

1.43

Großbardorf

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jahn Regensburg II+0.00on par

Großbardorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jahn Regensburg II ↓

Großbardorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Jahn Regensburg II or draw

75%

Jahn Regensburg II or Großbardorf

79%

Draw or Großbardorf

46%

Winning margin

Jahn Regensburg II wins by 2+

33%

Großbardorf wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Jahn Regensburg II 1+ goals

89%

Jahn Regensburg II 2+ goals

64%

Jahn Regensburg II 3+ goals

36%

Großbardorf 1+ goals

76%

Großbardorf 2+ goals

41%

Großbardorf 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Jahn Regensburg II (draw refunded)

69%

Großbardorf (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jahn Regensburg II at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.43 · 68 matches

Großbardorf away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jahn Regensburg II attack 2.22 + Großbardorf defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.17

Großbardorf attack 1.41 + Jahn Regensburg II defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Jahn Regensburg II scores more

54%

level

21%

Großbardorf scores more

25%

Jahn Regensburg II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Jahn Regensburg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

II

DLLW

Großbardorf

WWLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff