Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Jahn Regensburg II vs Fortuna Regensburg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Jahn Regensburg II
Jahn Regensburg II
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Fortuna Regensburg
Fortuna Regensburg
K. Onuigwe 77'
J. Griesbauer 50'
J. Bauer 32', 20'
F. Ziegler 85'
10/3/2023Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 15Sportpark am Kaulbachweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Jahn Regensburg II50%
×Draw22%
Fortuna Regensburg29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jahn Regensburg II
2.04
Fortuna Regensburg
1.52

Jahn Regensburg II creates 34% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 52 away

creates per match

Jahn Regensburg II
2.22
Fortuna Regensburg
1.60

allows per match

Jahn Regensburg II
1.43
Fortuna Regensburg
1.85

finishing

Jahn Regensburg II+0.00on par
Fortuna Regensburg+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jahn Regensburg II ↓

Fortuna Regensburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Jahn Regensburg II or draw
71%
Jahn Regensburg II or Fortuna Regensburg
78%
Draw or Fortuna Regensburg
50%

Winning margin

Jahn Regensburg II wins by 2+
29%
Fortuna Regensburg wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Jahn Regensburg II 1+ goals
87%
Jahn Regensburg II 2+ goals
60%
Jahn Regensburg II 3+ goals
33%
Fortuna Regensburg 1+ goals
78%
Fortuna Regensburg 2+ goals
45%
Fortuna Regensburg 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Jahn Regensburg II (draw refunded)
63%
Fortuna Regensburg (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jahn Regensburg II at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.43 · 68 matches

Fortuna Regensburg away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.85 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jahn Regensburg II attack 2.22 + Fortuna Regensburg defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.04

Fortuna Regensburg attack 1.60 + Jahn Regensburg II defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Jahn Regensburg II scores more
50%
level
22%
Fortuna Regensburg scores more
29%

Jahn Regensburg II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Jahn Regensburg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
J. Bauer
32'
J. Bauer
50'
J. Griesbauer
77'
K. Onuigwe
85'
F. Ziegler

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jahn Regensburg II vs Fortuna Regensburg

Jahn Regensburg II beat Fortuna Regensburg 4-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on October 3, 2023.

Goals: J. Bauer (20', 32'), J. Griesbauer (50'), K. Onuigwe (77'), F. Ziegler (85').

The match was played at Sportpark am Kaulbachweg in Regensburg.