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Jaguares vs Once Caldas — Primera A 2018

Jaguares
Jaguares
Preview
23:10
Once Caldas
Once Caldas
8/9/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 4Estadio Jaraguay
Big match
41%
Jaguares
model favours
41%29%30%

Once Caldas score first in only 23% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
64%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Jaguares41%
×Draw29%
Once Caldas30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jaguares
1.17
Once Caldas
0.96

Jaguares creates 22% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

creates per match

Jaguares
1.21
Once Caldas
0.88

allows per match

Jaguares
1.03
Once Caldas
1.14

finishing

Jaguares+0.08on par
Once Caldas+0.20scores more

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaguares ↓

Once Caldas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Jaguares or draw
70%
Jaguares or Once Caldas
71%
Draw or Once Caldas
59%

Winning margin

Jaguares wins by 2+
17%
Once Caldas wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Jaguares 1+ goals
69%
Jaguares 2+ goals
33%
Jaguares 3+ goals
11%
Once Caldas 1+ goals
62%
Once Caldas 2+ goals
25%
Once Caldas 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Jaguares (draw refunded)
58%
Once Caldas (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaguares at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.03 · 7 matches

Once Caldas away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.14 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaguares attack 1.21 + Once Caldas defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

Once Caldas attack 0.88 + Jaguares defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Jaguares scores more
41%
level
29%
Once Caldas scores more
30%

Jaguares at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Jaguares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Once Caldas win just 17% of their away games

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Jaguares
Balanced
Once Caldas
Balanced
46%Possession50%
78%Pass accuracy80%
12.0Shots12.6
0.95xGBiggest gap1.04
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
JaguaresOnce Caldas

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5
Jaguares
3
Draws
2
Once Caldas
Avg goals: 2BTTS: 50%
1–10–23–00–01–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Jaguares
LWDLW
Caldas
DLWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Jaguares host Once Caldas

August 9, 2026: Jaguares take on Once Caldas in Primera A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Jaguares host Once Caldas at Estadio Jaraguay.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.