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Jaguares vs Once Caldas — Primera A 2018

Jaguares
Jaguares
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Once Caldas
Once Caldas
C. Mancilla 54' (OG)
J. Castellanos 8'
M. García 26'
4/11/2022Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 15Estadio de Fútbol Jaraguay de Montería

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Jaguares42%
×Draw30%
Once Caldas28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jaguares
1.19
Once Caldas
0.92

Jaguares creates 29% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

creates per match

Jaguares
1.24
Once Caldas
0.88

allows per match

Jaguares
0.95
Once Caldas
1.14

finishing

Jaguares+0.14scores more
Once Caldas+0.20scores more

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaguares ↓

Once Caldas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Jaguares or draw
72%
Jaguares or Once Caldas
70%
Draw or Once Caldas
58%

Winning margin

Jaguares wins by 2+
18%
Once Caldas wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Jaguares 1+ goals
70%
Jaguares 2+ goals
33%
Jaguares 3+ goals
12%
Once Caldas 1+ goals
60%
Once Caldas 2+ goals
23%
Once Caldas 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Jaguares (draw refunded)
60%
Once Caldas (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaguares at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.95 · 8 matches

Once Caldas away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.14 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaguares attack 1.24 + Once Caldas defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Once Caldas attack 0.88 + Jaguares defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Jaguares scores more
42%
level
30%
Once Caldas scores more
28%

Jaguares at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Jaguares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30
J. CastellanosJaguaresJaguares · M
7.3

Match Events

7'
Brayan Córdoba
8'
J. Castellanos↳ P. Rojas
26'
M. García↳ D. Valdes
30'
C. Mancilla← B. Córdoba
41'
N. Giraldo← J. Cardona
50'
Marlon Piedrahita
54'
C. MancillaOwn goal
63'
J. Pérez← N. Quiñones
64'
J. Rodríguez← M. Piedrahita
64'
A. Del Valle← D. Valdes
71'
D. Padilla← C. Carrillo
72'
A. Arroyo← J. Castellanos
79'
D. Rodríguez← M. Balanta
83'
Dannovi Quinonez
84'
J. Quintero← J. Viveros
85'
Juan David Pérez
85'
Juan David Pérez

Possession

48%Jaguares

Shots

8Jaguares

Pass accuracy

51%Jaguares

Statistics

JaguaresOnce
Overview
48%Possession52%
8Total Shots16
6Corners7
11Fouls16
Shots
8Total Shots16
3On Target4
4Off Target9
1Blocked3
6Inside Box10
2Outside Box6
Passing
48%Possession52%
326Total Passes354
257Accurate Passes274
79%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls16
0Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Jaguares vs Once Caldas

Jaguares beat Once Caldas 2-1 in Primera A on April 11, 2022.

Goals: J. Castellanos (8'), M. García (26'), C. Mancilla (54' o.g.).

Once Caldas controlled possession (52%) and registered 16 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio de Fútbol Jaraguay de Montería in Montería.