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Jaguares vs Once Caldas — Primera A 2018

Jaguares
Jaguares
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Once Caldas
Once Caldas
Y. Anchico 90+3'
P. Bueno 4'
J. Carbonero 43'
10/5/2019Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 15Estadio Jaragüay De Monteria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Jaguares42%
×Draw30%
Once Caldas28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jaguares
1.19
Once Caldas
0.92

Jaguares creates 29% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

creates per match

Jaguares
1.24
Once Caldas
0.88

allows per match

Jaguares
0.95
Once Caldas
1.14

finishing

Jaguares+0.14scores more
Once Caldas+0.20scores more

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaguares ↓

Once Caldas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Jaguares or draw
72%
Jaguares or Once Caldas
70%
Draw or Once Caldas
58%

Winning margin

Jaguares wins by 2+
18%
Once Caldas wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Jaguares 1+ goals
70%
Jaguares 2+ goals
33%
Jaguares 3+ goals
12%
Once Caldas 1+ goals
60%
Once Caldas 2+ goals
23%
Once Caldas 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Jaguares (draw refunded)
60%
Once Caldas (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaguares at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.95 · 8 matches

Once Caldas away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.14 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaguares attack 1.24 + Once Caldas defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Once Caldas attack 0.88 + Jaguares defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Jaguares scores more
42%
level
30%
Once Caldas scores more
28%

Jaguares at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Jaguares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
J. CarboneroOnce CaldasOnce Caldas · M
8.1

Match Events

3'
Pablo Bueno
4'
P. Bueno↳ D. López
33'
Carlos Pájaro
35'
Diego Peralta
43'
J. Carbonero↳ M. Carreazo
45+2'
R. Lucena← L. Escorcia
63'
E. Toloza← H. Mojica
66'
Johan Carbonero
67'
Juan Rodríguez
67'
J. Cuero← D. López
71'
D. Lemos← M. García
76'
C. Lizarazo← J. Carbonero
81'
D. Rodríguez← J. Reina
83'
Darío Rodríguez
90'
Yulian Anchico
90+3'
Y. Anchico↳ E. Toloza

Possession

45%Jaguares

Shots

17Jaguares

Pass accuracy

48%Jaguares

Statistics

JaguaresOnce
Overview
45%Possession55%
17Total Shots8
9Corners3
20Fouls14
Shots
17Total Shots8
10On Target3
4Off Target5
3Blocked0
9Inside Box3
8Outside Box5
Passing
45%Possession55%
322Total Passes405
252Accurate Passes343
78%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
2Saves8
Discipline
20Fouls14
2Yellow Cards5
1Offsides3

Primera A: Jaguares 2–1 Once Caldas

Jaguares beat Once Caldas 2-1 in Primera A on October 5, 2019.

Goals: P. Bueno (4'), J. Carbonero (43'), Y. Anchico (90+3').

Once Caldas controlled possession (55%) and registered 8 shots to 17.

The match was played at Estadio Jaragüay De Monteria in Monteria.