Jaguares 4–3 Millonarios: Result & Stats

Jaguares

FT

4 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Millonarios

M. Balanta 73'

E. Sosa 59'

S. Salazar 45+5'

Y. Anchico 39'

A. Román 86'

H. Mojica 61'

E. Rodríguez 27'

9/26/2021

Primera A · Clausura - 11Estadio de Fútbol Jaraguay de Montería

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Jaguares39%

×Draw29%

Millonarios32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JaguaresExpected goals in this matchMillonarios

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.05

Jaguares

1.20

Millonarios

1.05

Jaguares creates 14% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

1.24

creates per match

1.16

0.95

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Jaguares

1.24

Millonarios

1.16

allows per match

Jaguares

0.95

Millonarios

1.16

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Jaguares+0.14scores more

Millonarios+0.14scores more

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaguares ↓

Millonarios →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Jaguares or draw

68%

Jaguares or Millonarios

71%

Draw or Millonarios

61%

Winning margin

Jaguares wins by 2+

17%

Millonarios wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Jaguares 1+ goals

70%

Jaguares 2+ goals

34%

Jaguares 3+ goals

12%

Millonarios 1+ goals

65%

Millonarios 2+ goals

28%

Millonarios 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Jaguares (draw refunded)

55%

Millonarios (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaguares at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.95 · 8 matches

Millonarios away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.16 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaguares attack 1.24 + Millonarios defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.20

Millonarios attack 1.16 + Jaguares defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Jaguares scores more

39%

level

29%

Millonarios scores more

32%

Jaguares at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Jaguares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

Y. Anchico

Jaguares · M

7.6

Match Events

27'

E. Rodríguez↳ J. Vargas

31'

Emerson RodríguezPenalty confirmed

39'

Y. Anchico↳ I. Scarpeta

41'

Elvis Perlaza

43'

Yulián Anchico

45+5'

S. Salazar↳ W. Guisao

46'

H. Mojica← E. Perlaza

59'

E. Sosa↳ Y. Anchico

61'

M. Balanta← W. Guisao

61'

H. Mojica↳ F. Uribe

68'

M. Castaño← I. Alba

69'

C. Carrillo← A. Rentería

73'

M. Balanta↳ P. Mina

78'

R. Márquez← F. Uribe

78'

J. Valencia← E. Rodríguez

86'

A. Román↳ D. Giraldo

88'

J. Lloreda← E. Sosa

88'

J. Marrufo← Y. Anchico

89'

90+7'

90+4'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JaguaresMillonarios

Overview

38%Possession62%

9Total Shots14

0Corners7

14Fouls6

Shots

9Total Shots14

6On Target6

1Off Target2

2Blocked6

6Inside Box10

3Outside Box4

Passing

38%Possession62%

290Total Passes468

224Accurate Passes399

77%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls6

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1