Jaguares 4–1 Millonarios: Result & Stats

Jaguares

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Millonarios

D. Díaz 80', 63'

P. Bueno 74'

K. Riascos 5'

D. Silva 34'

2/9/2020

Primera A · Round 4Estadio de Fútbol Jaraguay de Montería

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Jaguares39%

×Draw29%

Millonarios32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JaguaresExpected goals in this matchMillonarios

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.05

Jaguares

1.20

Millonarios

1.05

Jaguares creates 14% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

1.24

creates per match

1.16

0.95

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Jaguares

1.24

Millonarios

1.16

allows per match

Jaguares

0.95

Millonarios

1.16

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Jaguares+0.14scores more

Millonarios+0.14scores more

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaguares ↓

Millonarios →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Jaguares or draw

68%

Jaguares or Millonarios

71%

Draw or Millonarios

61%

Winning margin

Jaguares wins by 2+

17%

Millonarios wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Jaguares 1+ goals

70%

Jaguares 2+ goals

34%

Jaguares 3+ goals

12%

Millonarios 1+ goals

65%

Millonarios 2+ goals

28%

Millonarios 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Jaguares (draw refunded)

55%

Millonarios (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaguares at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.95 · 8 matches

Millonarios away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.16 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaguares attack 1.24 + Millonarios defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.20

Millonarios attack 1.16 + Jaguares defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Jaguares scores more

39%

level

29%

Millonarios scores more

32%

Jaguares at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Jaguares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

D. Díaz

Jaguares · M

8.1

Match Events

5'

34'

60'

60'

63'

70'

J. Salazar← A. Del Valle

74'

78'

80'

85'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JaguaresMillonarios

Overview

44%Possession56%

19Total Shots20

6Corners9

13Fouls6

Shots

19Total Shots20

7On Target8

7Off Target8

5Blocked4

12Inside Box15

7Outside Box5

Passing

44%Possession56%

338Total Passes410

263Accurate Passes321

78%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

7Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls6

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Jaguares vs Millonarios

Jaguares beat Millonarios 4-1 in Primera A on February 9, 2020.

Goals: K. Riascos (5'), D. Silva (34'), D. Díaz (63', 80'), P. Bueno (74').

Millonarios controlled possession (56%) and registered 20 shots to 19.

The match was played at Estadio de Fútbol Jaraguay de Montería in Montería.

Jaguares vs Millonarios — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Jaguares vs Millonarios