Jaguares 1–2 Junior: Result & Stats | Primera A

Jaguares

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Junior

R. Steer 19'

Y. González 25'

T. Gutiérrez 2'

5/6/2018

Primera A · Apertura - 19Estadio Jaragüay De Monteria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Jaguares41%

×Draw28%

Junior31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JaguaresExpected goals in this matchJunior

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.05

Jaguares

1.27

Junior

1.05

Jaguares creates 21% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 16 away

1.24

creates per match

1.16

0.95

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Jaguares

1.24

Junior

1.16

allows per match

Jaguares

0.95

Junior

1.30

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

Jaguares+0.14scores more

Junior+0.28scores more

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaguares ↓

Junior →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Jaguares or draw

69%

Jaguares or Junior

72%

Draw or Junior

59%

Winning margin

Jaguares wins by 2+

19%

Junior wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Jaguares 1+ goals

72%

Jaguares 2+ goals

36%

Jaguares 3+ goals

14%

Junior 1+ goals

65%

Junior 2+ goals

28%

Junior 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Jaguares (draw refunded)

57%

Junior (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaguares at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.95 · 8 matches

Junior away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.30 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaguares attack 1.24 + Junior defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.27

Junior attack 1.16 + Jaguares defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Jaguares scores more

41%

level

28%

Junior scores more

31%

Jaguares at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Jaguares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

T. Gutiérrez

Junior · F

8.1

Match Events

2'

T. Gutiérrez

19'

R. Steer↳ F. Castillo

23'

Alexis Hinestroza

25'

Y. González↳ T. Gutiérrez

44'

Edwin Avila

57'

J. Villota← L. Escalante

67'

D. López← J. Roa

68'

D. Murillo← G. Gutiérrez

69'

Jonathan Ávila

71'

Teófilo Gutiérrez

73'

Leonardo Escorcia

73'

L. Ruiz← T. Gutiérrez

80'

Juan Villota

82'

L. Díaz← Y. González

86'

J. Mezú← R. Steer

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JaguaresJunior

Overview

47%Possession53%

17Total Shots11

2Corners11

11Fouls22

Shots

17Total Shots11

4On Target6

8Off Target2

5Blocked3

5Inside Box7

12Outside Box4

Passing

47%Possession53%

392Total Passes453

325Accurate Passes391

83%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls22

4Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1

Primera A: Jaguares 1–2 Junior

Junior beat Jaguares 2-1 in Primera A on May 6, 2018.

Goals: T. Gutiérrez (2'), R. Steer (19'), Y. González (25').

Junior controlled possession (53%) and registered 11 shots to 17.

The match was played at Estadio Jaragüay De Monteria in Monteria.

Jaguares vs Junior — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: Jaguares 1–2 Junior