Jaguares 2–2 Deportivo Pereira: Result & Stats

Jaguares

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Deportivo Pereira

M. Cortés 26'

B. Cardona 6'

Y. Acevedo 38'

J. Murillo 29'

3/14/2019

Copa Colombia · Group Stage - 2Estadio de Fútbol Jaraguay de Montería (Montería)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Jaguares46%

×Draw26%

Deportivo Pereira28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JaguaresExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Pereira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.08

Jaguares

1.46

Deportivo Pereira

1.08

Jaguares creates 35% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 24 away

1.42

creates per match

1.17

1.00

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Jaguares

1.42

Deportivo Pereira

1.17

allows per match

Jaguares

1.00

Deportivo Pereira

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jaguares+0.00on par

Deportivo Pereira+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaguares ↓

Deportivo Pereira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Jaguares or draw

72%

Jaguares or Deportivo Pereira

74%

Draw or Deportivo Pereira

54%

Winning margin

Jaguares wins by 2+

22%

Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Jaguares 1+ goals

77%

Jaguares 2+ goals

43%

Jaguares 3+ goals

18%

Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals

66%

Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals

29%

Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Jaguares (draw refunded)

62%

Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaguares at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Deportivo Pereira away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaguares attack 1.42 + Deportivo Pereira defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Deportivo Pereira attack 1.17 + Jaguares defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Jaguares scores more

46%

level

26%

Deportivo Pereira scores more

28%

Jaguares at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Jaguares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

26'

29'

38'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff