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Jaguares vs Águilas Doradas — Primera A 2018

Jaguares
Jaguares
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Águilas Doradas
Águilas Doradas
4/7/2019Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 14Estadio Jaragüay De Monteria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Jaguares41%
×Draw29%
Águilas Doradas30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jaguares
1.18
Águilas Doradas
0.96

Jaguares creates 23% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 170 away

creates per match

Jaguares
1.06
Águilas Doradas
0.97

allows per match

Jaguares
0.96
Águilas Doradas
1.30

finishing

Jaguares+0.00on par
Águilas Doradas+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaguares ↓

Águilas Doradas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Jaguares or draw
70%
Jaguares or Águilas Doradas
71%
Draw or Águilas Doradas
59%

Winning margin

Jaguares wins by 2+
18%
Águilas Doradas wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Jaguares 1+ goals
69%
Jaguares 2+ goals
33%
Jaguares 3+ goals
12%
Águilas Doradas 1+ goals
62%
Águilas Doradas 2+ goals
25%
Águilas Doradas 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Jaguares (draw refunded)
58%
Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaguares at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.96 · 139 matches

Águilas Doradas away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.30 · 170 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaguares attack 1.06 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.18

Águilas Doradas attack 0.97 + Jaguares defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Jaguares scores more
41%
level
29%
Águilas Doradas scores more
30%

Jaguares at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Jaguares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jaguares vs Águilas Doradas

Jaguares beat Águilas Doradas 2-0 in Primera A on April 7, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Jaragüay De Monteria in Monteria.