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Jagodina vs Dunav Prahovo — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Jagodina
Jagodina
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dunav Prahovo
Dunav Prahovo
11/11/2023Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 14Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Jagodina60%
×Draw22%
Dunav Prahovo18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jagodina
1.88
Dunav Prahovo
0.91

Jagodina creates 107% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 79 away

creates per match

Jagodina
1.85
Dunav Prahovo
1.05

allows per match

Jagodina
0.76
Dunav Prahovo
1.90

finishing

Jagodina+0.00on par
Dunav Prahovo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagodina ↓

Dunav Prahovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Jagodina or draw
82%
Jagodina or Dunav Prahovo
78%
Draw or Dunav Prahovo
40%

Winning margin

Jagodina wins by 2+
35%
Dunav Prahovo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Jagodina 1+ goals
85%
Jagodina 2+ goals
56%
Jagodina 3+ goals
29%
Dunav Prahovo 1+ goals
60%
Dunav Prahovo 2+ goals
23%
Dunav Prahovo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Jagodina (draw refunded)
77%
Dunav Prahovo (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagodina at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.76 · 82 matches

Dunav Prahovo away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.90 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagodina attack 1.85 + Dunav Prahovo defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.88

Dunav Prahovo attack 1.05 + Jagodina defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Jagodina scores more
60%
level
22%
Dunav Prahovo scores more
18%

Jagodina at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Jagodina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Jagodina 2–0 Dunav Prahovo

Jagodina beat Dunav Prahovo 2-0 in Srpska Liga - East on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Jagodina.