Jagodina vs Budućnost Popovac — Srpska Liga - East 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 82+ matches
Jagodina51%
Budućnost Popovac25%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Jagodina creates 53% more chances
Season form · 82 home / 87 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Jagodina ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Jagodina at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.76 · 82 matches
Budućnost Popovac away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.45 · 87 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Jagodina attack 1.85 + Budućnost Popovac defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.65
Budućnost Popovac attack 1.40 + Jagodina defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.08
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 51%?"
Jagodina at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 51% does not mean "Jagodina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
JagodinaBudućnost Popovac
Sinđelić
Toplicanin Prokuplje
SFS Borac
Vlasina
Timočanin
Radan
Moravac Mrštane
Dunav Prahovo
Car Konstantin
Dubočica
Rembas
Jedinstvo Bošnjace
Trstenik PPT
Temnic 1924If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Jagodina host Budućnost Popovac on Wednesday, 20 April 2022 at 14:30. The match is part of the Srpska Liga - East 2019/2020 season.
Srpska Liga - East: Jagodina 1–2 Budućnost Popovac
Budućnost Popovac beat Jagodina 2-1 in Srpska Liga - East on April 20, 2022.
The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Jagodina.