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Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice — Ekstraklasa 2018

Jagiellonia
Jagiellonia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Piast Gliwice
Piast Gliwice
11/24/2023EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 16Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Jagiellonia47%
×Draw24%
Piast Gliwice29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jagiellonia
1.68
Piast Gliwice
1.25

Jagiellonia creates 34% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 15 away

creates per match

Jagiellonia
1.66
Piast Gliwice
1.12

allows per match

Jagiellonia
1.37
Piast Gliwice
1.70

finishing

Jagiellonia+0.09on par
Piast Gliwice+0.28scores more

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagiellonia ↓

Piast Gliwice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Jagiellonia or draw
71%
Jagiellonia or Piast Gliwice
76%
Draw or Piast Gliwice
53%

Winning margin

Jagiellonia wins by 2+
25%
Piast Gliwice wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Jagiellonia 1+ goals
81%
Jagiellonia 2+ goals
50%
Jagiellonia 3+ goals
24%
Piast Gliwice 1+ goals
71%
Piast Gliwice 2+ goals
36%
Piast Gliwice 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Jagiellonia (draw refunded)
62%
Piast Gliwice (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagiellonia at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.37 · 16 matches

Piast Gliwice away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.70 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagiellonia attack 1.66 + Piast Gliwice defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.68

Piast Gliwice attack 1.12 + Jagiellonia defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Jagiellonia scores more
47%
level
24%
Piast Gliwice scores more
29%

Jagiellonia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Jagiellonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraklasa: Jagiellonia 0–0 Piast Gliwice

Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice drew 0-0 in Ekstraklasa on November 24, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Białystok.