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Jagiellonia II vs Legia Warszawa II — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Jagiellonia II
Jagiellonia II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Legia Warszawa II
Legia Warszawa II
11/11/2023III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 16Ośrodek Szkoleniowy Jagiellonii Białystok

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Jagiellonia II36%
×Draw23%
Legia Warszawa II41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jagiellonia II
1.54
Legia Warszawa II
1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 104 home / 104 away

creates per match

Jagiellonia II
1.76
Legia Warszawa II
1.77

allows per match

Jagiellonia II
1.53
Legia Warszawa II
1.32

finishing

Jagiellonia II+0.00on par
Legia Warszawa II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagiellonia II ↓

Legia Warszawa II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Jagiellonia II or draw
59%
Jagiellonia II or Legia Warszawa II
77%
Draw or Legia Warszawa II
64%

Winning margin

Jagiellonia II wins by 2+
17%
Legia Warszawa II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Jagiellonia II 1+ goals
79%
Jagiellonia II 2+ goals
45%
Jagiellonia II 3+ goals
20%
Legia Warszawa II 1+ goals
81%
Legia Warszawa II 2+ goals
49%
Legia Warszawa II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Jagiellonia II (draw refunded)
47%
Legia Warszawa II (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagiellonia II at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.53 · 104 matches

Legia Warszawa II away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.32 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagiellonia II attack 1.76 + Legia Warszawa II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.54

Legia Warszawa II attack 1.77 + Jagiellonia II defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Jagiellonia II scores more
36%
level
23%
Legia Warszawa II scores more
41%

Legia Warszawa II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Legia Warszawa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Jagiellonia II 1–2 Legia Warszawa II

Legia Warszawa II beat Jagiellonia II 2-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Ośrodek Szkoleniowy Jagiellonii Białystok in Białystok.