Ada Velipojë 0–0 Burreli: Result & Stats

Ada Velipojë

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Burreli

3/14/2012

1st Division · Round 16Fusha Sportive Adriatik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ada Velipojë40%

×Draw27%

Burreli33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ada VelipojëExpected goals in this matchBurreli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.18

Ada Velipojë

1.33

Burreli

1.18

Ada Velipojë creates 13% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 102 away

1.25

creates per match

0.85

1.50

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Ada Velipojë

1.25

Burreli

0.85

allows per match

Ada Velipojë

1.50

Burreli

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ada Velipojë+0.00on par

Burreli+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ada Velipojë ↓

Burreli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ada Velipojë or draw

67%

Ada Velipojë or Burreli

73%

Draw or Burreli

60%

Winning margin

Ada Velipojë wins by 2+

18%

Burreli wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Ada Velipojë 1+ goals

74%

Ada Velipojë 2+ goals

38%

Ada Velipojë 3+ goals

15%

Burreli 1+ goals

69%

Burreli 2+ goals

33%

Burreli 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Ada Velipojë (draw refunded)

55%

Burreli (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ada Velipojë at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Burreli away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.42 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ada Velipojë attack 1.25 + Burreli defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.33

Burreli attack 0.85 + Ada Velipojë defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ada Velipojë scores more

40%

level

27%

Burreli scores more

33%

Ada Velipojë at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ada Velipojë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

E. Puka← D. Lifja

46'

60'

70'

80'

82'

E. Pllumbaj← B. Murati

Ada

Burreli

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

30'▲E. Puka←▼D. Lifja

70'▲S. Gjokaj←▼G. Isufi

82'▲E. Pllumbaj←▼B. Murati

Ada Velipojë substitutes

PukaGjokajPllumbajFishtaÇakuDalipiSelmani

46'▲J. Hoxha←▼J. Osusi

60'▲L. Haxhia←▼E. Kadiu

80'▲S. Rahova←▼K. Ivanaj

Burreli substitutes

HoxhaHaxhiaRahovaDikaBishaniBuraku

Match Recap: Ada Velipojë vs Burreli

Ada Velipojë and Burreli drew 0-0 in 1st Division on March 14, 2012.

The match was played at Fusha Sportive Adriatik.

Ada Velipojë vs Burreli — 1st Division 2011

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ada Velipojë vs Burreli