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JAC vs ASPAC — Championnat National 2019

JAC
JAC
PST
00:00
ASPAC
ASPAC
5/31/2020Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 29Stade Cotonou II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

JAC33%
×Draw32%
ASPAC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JAC
0.91
ASPAC
0.95

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 118 away

creates per match

JAC
0.98
ASPAC
0.90

allows per match

JAC
1.00
ASPAC
0.83

finishing

JAC+0.00on par
ASPAC+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JAC ↓

ASPAC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

JAC or draw
65%
JAC or ASPAC
68%
Draw or ASPAC
67%

Winning margin

JAC wins by 2+
12%
ASPAC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

JAC 1+ goals
60%
JAC 2+ goals
23%
JAC 3+ goals
6%
ASPAC 1+ goals
61%
ASPAC 2+ goals
25%
ASPAC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

JAC (draw refunded)
48%
ASPAC (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JAC at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.00 · 49 matches

ASPAC away — creates 0.90, concedes 0.83 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JAC attack 0.98 + ASPAC defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.91

ASPAC attack 0.90 + JAC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

JAC scores more
33%
level
32%
ASPAC scores more
35%

ASPAC at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "ASPAC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: JAC host ASPAC

May 31, 2020: JAC take on ASPAC in Championnat National. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

JAC host ASPAC at Stade Cotonou II.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.