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Jablonec U19 vs Jindřichův Hradec — 1. Liga U19 2020

Jablonec U19
Jablonec U19
PST
08:15
Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
6/14/20251. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 30Základní škola Mozartova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jablonec U1917%
×Draw19%
Jindřichův Hradec64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jablonec U19
1.16
Jindřichův Hradec
2.40

Jindřichův Hradec creates 107% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 64 away

creates per match

Jablonec U19
0.87
Jindřichův Hradec
2.13

allows per match

Jablonec U19
2.67
Jindřichův Hradec
1.44

finishing

Jablonec U19+0.00on par
Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jablonec U19 ↓

Jindřichův Hradec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Jablonec U19 or draw
36%
Jablonec U19 or Jindřichův Hradec
81%
Draw or Jindřichův Hradec
83%

Winning margin

Jablonec U19 wins by 2+
6%
Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Jablonec U19 1+ goals
69%
Jablonec U19 2+ goals
32%
Jablonec U19 3+ goals
11%
Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
91%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
69%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Jablonec U19 (draw refunded)
21%
Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jablonec U19 at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

Jindřichův Hradec away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.44 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jablonec U19 attack 0.87 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.16

Jindřichův Hradec attack 2.13 + Jablonec U19 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Jablonec U19 scores more
17%
level
19%
Jindřichův Hradec scores more
64%

Jindřichův Hradec at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Jindřichův Hradec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jablonec U19 face Jindřichův Hradec (1. Liga U19)

1. Liga U19 returns with Jablonec U19 hosting Jindřichův Hradec. Match starts June 14, 2025. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Jablonec U19 host Jindřichův Hradec at Základní škola Mozartova.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.