Jabaquara U20 vs Sertãozinho U20

Jabaquara U20

Preview

18:00

Sertãozinho U20

7/31/2026

Paulista - U20 · Round 9

46%

Jabaquara U20

model favours

46%26%28%

1–1

likely score

51%

under 2.5 goals

53%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jabaquara U2046%

×Draw26%

Sertãozinho U2028%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jabaquara U20Expected goals in this matchSertãozinho U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.13

Jabaquara U20

1.52

Sertãozinho U20

1.13

Jabaquara U20 creates 35% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 23 away

1.07

creates per match

1.13

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Jabaquara U20

1.07

Sertãozinho U20

1.13

allows per match

Jabaquara U20

1.13

Sertãozinho U20

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jabaquara U20+0.00on par

Sertãozinho U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jabaquara U20 ↓

Sertãozinho U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Jabaquara U20 or draw

72%

Jabaquara U20 or Sertãozinho U20

74%

Draw or Sertãozinho U20

54%

Winning margin

Jabaquara U20 wins by 2+

23%

Sertãozinho U20 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Jabaquara U20 1+ goals

78%

Jabaquara U20 2+ goals

45%

Jabaquara U20 3+ goals

20%

Sertãozinho U20 1+ goals

68%

Sertãozinho U20 2+ goals

31%

Sertãozinho U20 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Jabaquara U20 (draw refunded)

62%

Sertãozinho U20 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jabaquara U20 at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Sertãozinho U20 away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.96 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jabaquara U20 attack 1.07 + Sertãozinho U20 defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sertãozinho U20 attack 1.13 + Jabaquara U20 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Jabaquara U20 scores more

46%

level

26%

Sertãozinho U20 scores more

28%

Jabaquara U20 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Jabaquara U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

U20

LDLWW

U20

DWLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff