Jabaquara U20 vs Corinthians U20

Jabaquara U20

Preview

18:00

Corinthians U20

8/14/2026

Paulista - U20 · Round 12

40%

Corinthians U20

model favours

33%27%40%

When Corinthians U20 score first, they win 85% of the time

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

56%

under 2.5 goals

49%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jabaquara U2033%

×Draw27%

Corinthians U2040%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jabaquara U20Expected goals in this matchCorinthians U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.29

Jabaquara U20

1.14

Corinthians U20

1.29

Corinthians U20 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 24 away

1.07

creates per match

1.46

1.13

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Jabaquara U20

1.07

Corinthians U20

1.46

allows per match

Jabaquara U20

1.13

Corinthians U20

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jabaquara U20+0.00on par

Corinthians U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jabaquara U20 ↓

Corinthians U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Jabaquara U20 or draw

60%

Jabaquara U20 or Corinthians U20

73%

Draw or Corinthians U20

67%

Winning margin

Jabaquara U20 wins by 2+

13%

Corinthians U20 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Jabaquara U20 1+ goals

68%

Jabaquara U20 2+ goals

32%

Jabaquara U20 3+ goals

11%

Corinthians U20 1+ goals

72%

Corinthians U20 2+ goals

37%

Corinthians U20 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Jabaquara U20 (draw refunded)

45%

Corinthians U20 (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jabaquara U20 at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Corinthians U20 away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jabaquara U20 attack 1.07 + Corinthians U20 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.14

Corinthians U20 attack 1.46 + Jabaquara U20 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Jabaquara U20 scores more

33%

level

27%

Corinthians U20 scores more

40%

Corinthians U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Corinthians U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Jabaquara U20 sit 28, Corinthians U20 4 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

U20

LDLWW

U20

WLWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff