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Iztapa vs Municipal — Liga Nacional 2019

Iztapa
Iztapa
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Municipal
Municipal
4/24/2021Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Clausura - 14Estadio Municipal El Morón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Iztapa44%
×Draw27%
Municipal29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iztapa
1.40
Municipal
1.08

Iztapa creates 30% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 161 away

creates per match

Iztapa
1.86
Municipal
1.10

allows per match

Iztapa
1.05
Municipal
0.93

finishing

Iztapa+0.00on par
Municipal+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iztapa ↓

Municipal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Iztapa or draw
71%
Iztapa or Municipal
73%
Draw or Municipal
56%

Winning margin

Iztapa wins by 2+
21%
Municipal wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Iztapa 1+ goals
75%
Iztapa 2+ goals
41%
Iztapa 3+ goals
17%
Municipal 1+ goals
66%
Municipal 2+ goals
29%
Municipal 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Iztapa (draw refunded)
60%
Municipal (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iztapa at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.05 · 81 matches

Municipal away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.93 · 161 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iztapa attack 1.86 + Municipal defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.40

Municipal attack 1.10 + Iztapa defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Iztapa scores more
44%
level
27%
Municipal scores more
29%

Iztapa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Iztapa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Nacional: Iztapa 0–0 Municipal

Iztapa and Municipal drew 0-0 in Liga Nacional on April 24, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Morón in Puerto Iztapa.