Iztapa 4–2 Malacateco: Result & Stats

Iztapa

FT

4 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Malacateco

8/21/2021

Liga Nacional · Apertura - 5Estadio Municipal El Morón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Iztapa57%

×Draw24%

Malacateco20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IztapaExpected goals in this matchMalacateco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

0.92

Iztapa

1.74

Malacateco

0.92

Iztapa creates 89% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 145 away

1.86

creates per match

0.78

1.05

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Iztapa

1.86

Malacateco

0.78

allows per match

Iztapa

1.05

Malacateco

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iztapa+0.00on par

Malacateco+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iztapa ↓

Malacateco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Iztapa or draw

80%

Iztapa or Malacateco

76%

Draw or Malacateco

43%

Winning margin

Iztapa wins by 2+

32%

Malacateco wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Iztapa 1+ goals

82%

Iztapa 2+ goals

52%

Iztapa 3+ goals

25%

Malacateco 1+ goals

60%

Malacateco 2+ goals

23%

Malacateco 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Iztapa (draw refunded)

74%

Malacateco (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iztapa at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.05 · 81 matches

Malacateco away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.62 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iztapa attack 1.86 + Malacateco defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.74

Malacateco attack 0.78 + Iztapa defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Iztapa scores more

57%

level

24%

Malacateco scores more

20%

Iztapa at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Iztapa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff