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Iváncsa vs PTE-PEAC — NB III - Southwest 2019

Iváncsa
Iváncsa
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
PTE-PEAC
PTE-PEAC
11/5/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 14Iváncsai Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Iváncsa71%
×Draw17%
PTE-PEAC13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iváncsa
2.54
PTE-PEAC
0.98

Iváncsa creates 159% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Iváncsa
2.96
PTE-PEAC
1.02

allows per match

Iváncsa
0.93
PTE-PEAC
2.11

finishing

Iváncsa+0.00on par
PTE-PEAC+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iváncsa ↓

PTE-PEAC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Iváncsa or draw
87%
Iváncsa or PTE-PEAC
83%
Draw or PTE-PEAC
29%

Winning margin

Iváncsa wins by 2+
49%
PTE-PEAC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Iváncsa 1+ goals
92%
Iváncsa 2+ goals
72%
Iváncsa 3+ goals
46%
PTE-PEAC 1+ goals
62%
PTE-PEAC 2+ goals
26%
PTE-PEAC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Iváncsa (draw refunded)
85%
PTE-PEAC (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iváncsa at home — creates 2.96, concedes 0.93 · 45 matches

PTE-PEAC away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iváncsa attack 2.96 + PTE-PEAC defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.54

PTE-PEAC attack 1.02 + Iváncsa defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Iváncsa scores more
71%
level
17%
PTE-PEAC scores more
13%

Iváncsa at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Iváncsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Iváncsa vs PTE-PEAC

Iváncsa beat PTE-PEAC 2-0 in NB III - Southwest on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Iváncsai Sportpálya in Iváncsa.