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Ituano U20 vs Flamengo SP U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Ituano U20
Ituano U20
Preview
18:00
Flamengo SP U20
Flamengo SP U20
9/12/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 15
73%
Ituano U20
model favours
73%16%11%

Flamengo SP U20 score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
66%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ituano U2073%
×Draw16%
Flamengo SP U2011%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ituano U20
2.56
Flamengo SP U20
0.87

Ituano U20 creates 194% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ituano U20
2.24
Flamengo SP U20
0.88

allows per match

Ituano U20
0.86
Flamengo SP U20
2.88

finishing

Ituano U20+0.00on par
Flamengo SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 66Under: 3466%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 54No: 4654%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ituano U20 ↓

Flamengo SP U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Ituano U20 or draw
89%
Ituano U20 or Flamengo SP U20
84%
Draw or Flamengo SP U20
27%

Winning margin

Ituano U20 wins by 2+
51%
Flamengo SP U20 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ituano U20 1+ goals
92%
Ituano U20 2+ goals
72%
Ituano U20 3+ goals
46%
Flamengo SP U20 1+ goals
58%
Flamengo SP U20 2+ goals
22%
Flamengo SP U20 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ituano U20 (draw refunded)
87%
Flamengo SP U20 (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ituano U20 at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Flamengo SP U20 away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ituano U20 attack 2.24 + Flamengo SP U20 defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.56

Flamengo SP U20 attack 0.88 + Ituano U20 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Ituano U20 scores more
73%
level
16%
Flamengo SP U20 scores more
11%

Ituano U20 at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Ituano U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Ituano U20 and Flamengo SP U20 have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
DDLDD
U20
WDLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ituano U20 host Flamengo SP U20

September 12, 2026: Ituano U20 take on Flamengo SP U20 in Paulista - U20. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.