Ittihad Tanger 1–1 Wydad AC: Result & Stats | Cup

Ittihad Tanger

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Wydad AC

4/12/2023

Cup · Round of 16Grand Stade de Tanger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ittihad Tanger30%

×Draw28%

Wydad AC42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ittihad TangerExpected goals in this matchWydad AC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.25

Ittihad Tanger

1.00

Wydad AC

1.25

Wydad AC creates 25% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

1.33

creates per match

2.17

0.33

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Ittihad Tanger

1.33

Wydad AC

2.17

allows per match

Ittihad Tanger

0.33

Wydad AC

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ittihad Tanger+0.00on par

Wydad AC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ittihad Tanger ↓

Wydad AC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ittihad Tanger or draw

58%

Ittihad Tanger or Wydad AC

72%

Draw or Wydad AC

70%

Winning margin

Ittihad Tanger wins by 2+

11%

Wydad AC wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Ittihad Tanger 1+ goals

63%

Ittihad Tanger 2+ goals

26%

Ittihad Tanger 3+ goals

8%

Wydad AC 1+ goals

71%

Wydad AC 2+ goals

36%

Wydad AC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Ittihad Tanger (draw refunded)

41%

Wydad AC (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ittihad Tanger at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Wydad AC away — creates 2.17, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ittihad Tanger attack 1.33 + Wydad AC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Wydad AC attack 2.17 + Ittihad Tanger defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ittihad Tanger scores more

30%

level

28%

Wydad AC scores more

42%

Wydad AC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Wydad AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff