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Ittihad Tanger vs Mouloudia Oujda — Cup 2020

Ittihad Tanger
Ittihad Tangeradvanced
FT
3 – 0
Mouloudia Oujda
Mouloudia Oujda
1/2/2021CupCup · Round of 32Grand Stade de Tanger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ittihad Tanger63%
×Draw28%
Mouloudia Oujda9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ittihad Tanger
1.33
Mouloudia Oujda
0.33

Ittihad Tanger creates 303% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Ittihad Tanger
1.33
Mouloudia Oujda
0.33

allows per match

Ittihad Tanger
0.33
Mouloudia Oujda
1.33

finishing

Ittihad Tanger+0.00on par
Mouloudia Oujda+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

79%No
  • No79
  • Yes21

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ittihad Tanger ↓

Mouloudia Oujda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–025%
1–18%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (25%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Ittihad Tanger or draw
91%
Ittihad Tanger or Mouloudia Oujda
72%
Draw or Mouloudia Oujda
37%

Winning margin

Ittihad Tanger wins by 2+
31%
Mouloudia Oujda wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Ittihad Tanger 1+ goals
74%
Ittihad Tanger 2+ goals
38%
Ittihad Tanger 3+ goals
15%
Mouloudia Oujda 1+ goals
28%
Mouloudia Oujda 2+ goals
4%
Mouloudia Oujda 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Ittihad Tanger (draw refunded)
87%
Mouloudia Oujda (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
12%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ittihad Tanger at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Mouloudia Oujda away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ittihad Tanger attack 1.33 + Mouloudia Oujda defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Mouloudia Oujda attack 0.33 + Ittihad Tanger defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Ittihad Tanger scores more
63%
level
28%
Mouloudia Oujda scores more
9%

Ittihad Tanger at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Ittihad Tanger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ittihad Tanger vs Mouloudia Oujda

Ittihad Tanger beat Mouloudia Oujda 3-0 in Cup on January 2, 2021.

The match was played at Grand Stade de Tanger in Tanger.