Ittihad Tanger 2–2 Maghreb Fès: Result & Stats

Ittihad Tanger

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Maghreb Fès

11/5/2023

Botola Pro · Round 8Stade Saniat Rmel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Ittihad Tanger34%

×Draw31%

Maghreb Fès35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ittihad TangerExpected goals in this matchMaghreb Fès

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

0.99

Ittihad Tanger

0.98

Maghreb Fès

0.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 121 home / 90 away

0.95

creates per match

0.99

1.00

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Ittihad Tanger

0.95

Maghreb Fès

0.99

allows per match

Ittihad Tanger

1.00

Maghreb Fès

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ittihad Tanger+0.00on par

Maghreb Fès+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ittihad Tanger ↓

Maghreb Fès →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Ittihad Tanger or draw

65%

Ittihad Tanger or Maghreb Fès

69%

Draw or Maghreb Fès

66%

Winning margin

Ittihad Tanger wins by 2+

13%

Maghreb Fès wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ittihad Tanger 1+ goals

62%

Ittihad Tanger 2+ goals

26%

Ittihad Tanger 3+ goals

8%

Maghreb Fès 1+ goals

63%

Maghreb Fès 2+ goals

26%

Maghreb Fès 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Ittihad Tanger (draw refunded)

50%

Maghreb Fès (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ittihad Tanger at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.00 · 121 matches

Maghreb Fès away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.01 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ittihad Tanger attack 0.95 + Maghreb Fès defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.98

Maghreb Fès attack 0.99 + Ittihad Tanger defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Ittihad Tanger scores more

34%

level

31%

Maghreb Fès scores more

35%

Maghreb Fès at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Maghreb Fès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff