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Ittihad Tanger vs Difaa EL Jadida — Botola Pro 2025

Ittihad Tanger
Ittihad Tanger
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Difaa EL Jadida
Difaa EL Jadida
7/14/2021Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 27Grand Stade de Tanger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Ittihad Tanger42%
×Draw28%
Difaa EL Jadida30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ittihad Tanger
1.26
Difaa EL Jadida
1.02

Ittihad Tanger creates 24% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 106 away

creates per match

Ittihad Tanger
0.97
Difaa EL Jadida
1.04

allows per match

Ittihad Tanger
0.99
Difaa EL Jadida
1.55

finishing

Ittihad Tanger+0.00on par
Difaa EL Jadida+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ittihad Tanger ↓

Difaa EL Jadida →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ittihad Tanger or draw
70%
Ittihad Tanger or Difaa EL Jadida
72%
Draw or Difaa EL Jadida
58%

Winning margin

Ittihad Tanger wins by 2+
19%
Difaa EL Jadida wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ittihad Tanger 1+ goals
72%
Ittihad Tanger 2+ goals
36%
Ittihad Tanger 3+ goals
13%
Difaa EL Jadida 1+ goals
64%
Difaa EL Jadida 2+ goals
27%
Difaa EL Jadida 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ittihad Tanger (draw refunded)
58%
Difaa EL Jadida (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ittihad Tanger at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.99 · 118 matches

Difaa EL Jadida away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.55 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ittihad Tanger attack 0.97 + Difaa EL Jadida defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.26

Difaa EL Jadida attack 1.04 + Ittihad Tanger defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ittihad Tanger scores more
42%
level
28%
Difaa EL Jadida scores more
30%

Ittihad Tanger at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ittihad Tanger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Ittihad Tanger 0–1 Difaa EL Jadida

Difaa EL Jadida beat Ittihad Tanger 1-0 in Botola Pro on July 14, 2021.

The match was played at Grand Stade de Tanger in Tanger.