Ittihad Khemisset 1–1 Chabab Atl. Khenifra

Ittihad Khemisset

FT

1 – 1

Chabab Atl. Khenifra

2/5/2021

Botola 2 · Round 9Stade Maamoura

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Ittihad Khemisset41%

×Draw31%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ittihad KhemissetExpected goals in this matchChabab Atl. Khenifra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.85

Ittihad Khemisset

1.10

Chabab Atl. Khenifra

0.85

Ittihad Khemisset creates 29% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 120 away

0.99

creates per match

0.79

0.92

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Ittihad Khemisset

0.99

Chabab Atl. Khenifra

0.79

allows per match

Ittihad Khemisset

0.92

Chabab Atl. Khenifra

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ittihad Khemisset+0.00on par

Chabab Atl. Khenifra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ittihad Khemisset ↓

Chabab Atl. Khenifra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Ittihad Khemisset or draw

72%

Ittihad Khemisset or Chabab Atl. Khenifra

69%

Draw or Chabab Atl. Khenifra

59%

Winning margin

Ittihad Khemisset wins by 2+

17%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ittihad Khemisset 1+ goals

67%

Ittihad Khemisset 2+ goals

30%

Ittihad Khemisset 3+ goals

10%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra 1+ goals

57%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra 2+ goals

21%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ittihad Khemisset (draw refunded)

60%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ittihad Khemisset at home — creates 0.99, concedes 0.92 · 75 matches

Chabab Atl. Khenifra away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.22 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ittihad Khemisset attack 0.99 + Chabab Atl. Khenifra defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.10

Chabab Atl. Khenifra attack 0.79 + Ittihad Khemisset defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ittihad Khemisset scores more

41%

level

31%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra scores more

28%

Ittihad Khemisset at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ittihad Khemisset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff